Edition 004
Cashews Dodge the Tariff Wave
Published
New US Section 301 tariffs hit 60 trading partners on 24 July 2026, but cashews were written into the exemption annex. The relief is real — and it protects only one end of the chain.
On 24 July, the US rolled out new Section 301 tariffs of 10–12.5% on 60 trading partners — but cashews, along with Brazil nuts, macadamias and pine nuts, were specifically written into the exemption annex, confirmed directly in the Federal Register notice. The same carve-out applied to Brazil's separate 25% tariff action days earlier. For a trade that took real damage from tariff uncertainty in 2025 — Vietnam's US cashew export volumes fell over 27% in one stretch — this is the closest thing to good news the sector has had all year.
GLOBAL CASHEW SNAPSHOT
Vietnam processes 65%+ of the world's raw cashews and exports 80%+ of kernels — but imports ~90% of its own raw material, mostly from Africa.
Several African origin countries are raising export duties or restricting raw-nut exports to keep more processing onshore.
The world's top raw producer may see 2026 output down 5–10% versus prior estimates.
The exemption protects processed kernels at the US border — it does nothing for raw-material tightness at origin.
VESSEL CAPACITY SQUEEZE
Boxship charter rates keep climbing as 2026 tonnage runs short, particularly in larger vessel classes — major carriers are locking in newbuild capacity years ahead, some not delivering until 2027–2029. Global port congestion has climbed to roughly 12% of the world's containership fleet tied up waiting, per Linerlytica. It's structural, not one trade lane's problem — and it will keep freight firmer than spot-market softness alone would suggest.
What to watch next
- Whether nut exemptions carry through to any future US tariff rounds
- The 2026 raw-cashew harvest outturn from the world's top producer — the benchmark for global pricing
- Newbuild container-vessel deliveries through 2027, the main relief valve for tonnage shortage
Sontaq analysis
The tariff exemption is real relief, but it only protects the kernel-export side of the chain. Raw-material tightness at origin, plus a genuinely short global vessel market, means landed costs for cashew buyers may not fall as fast as the tariff news suggests. Two different constraints, two different timelines — price accordingly.
